Average return is a summary statistic, and summary statistics hide the thing that hurts retirees most: order. A portfolio that falls 20% in the first two years of withdrawals may never recover, because every dollar sold at a depressed price is a dollar that cannot participate in the rebound.
The standard defences are unglamorous and effective. Hold two to three years of planned withdrawals in short-term bonds and cash so you are never a forced seller. Set a withdrawal policy with guardrails rather than a fixed inflation-adjusted amount. Rebalance into weakness on a schedule instead of a hunch.
None of this requires forecasting. It requires deciding, in advance, what you will do when the market does the thing markets periodically do.